Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Klarna Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Eagles O/U 10.5 | 95% |
| O/U 26.5 | 94% |
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 27.5 | 92% |
| O/U 28.5 | 91% |
| O/U 29.5 | 89% |
| O/U 30.5 | 86% |
| O/U 31.5 | 85% |
| Commanders O/U 10.5 | 84% |
| O/U 32.5 | 83% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 81% |
| O/U 33.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 80% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| Eagles O/U 18.5 | 79% |
| O/U 34.5 | 79% |
| Commanders O/U 12.5 | 79% |
| O/U 35.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Commanders O/U 13.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| Eagles O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 74% |
| O/U 36.5 | 74% |
| O/U 37.5 | 71% |
| Eagles O/U 13.5 | 71% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 69% |
| Eagles O/U 20.5 | 69% |
| O/U 38.5 | 68% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| Spread -1.5 | 66% |
| Eagles O/U 21.5 | 65% |
| Spread -2.5 | 65% |
| O/U 39.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| Commanders O/U 16.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 63% |
| O/U 40.5 | 60% |
| O/U 41.5 | 59% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| Eagles O/U 23.5 | 57% |
| Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| O/U 42.5 | 56% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 56% |
| Eagles Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 56% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 12.5 | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 54% |
| Eagles O/U 12.5 | 54% |
| Eagles O/U 15.5 | 54% |
| Spread -4.5 | 53% |
| 2H Moneyline | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| Spread -5.5 | 52% |
| O/U 43.5 | 52% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 7.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| Eagles O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| Safety? | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 51% |
| Eagles Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 51% |
| Commanders vs. Eagles: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 21+ | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Commanders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 13-18 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 49% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Commanders O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 25+ | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 19-24 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 7-12 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 48% |
| Eagles O/U 16.5 | 48% |
| Spread -6.5 | 47% |
| O/U 44.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 47% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| Eagles O/U 26.5 | 46% |
| O/U 45.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| O/U 46.5 | 42% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| O/U 47.5 | 39% |
| Spread -8.5 | 39% |
| Commanders O/U 20.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 38% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 38% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| Eagles O/U 27.5 | 37% |
| Commanders O/U 22.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| O/U 48.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Spread -9.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 36% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| 1H Moneyline | 35% |
| Commanders Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| O/U 49.5 | 34% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 33% |
| Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| Commanders vs. Eagles | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 32% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| O/U 51.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| Commanders O/U 23.5 | 31% |
| O/U 50.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 16.5 | 30% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 29% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 1-6 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 13.5 | 27% |
| Eagles O/U 30.5 | 26% |
| Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| Spread -13.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| O/U 52.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| O/U 53.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| Commanders O/U 25.5 | 23% |
| Spread -14.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 20.5 | 23% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 1-6 | 22% |
| Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| Commanders O/U 26.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| O/U 54.5 | 21% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 21% |
| Spread -4.5 | 20% |
| Spread -16.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 20.5 | 20% |
| Spread -5.5 | 18% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 16.5 | 18% |
| O/U 55.5 | 17% |
| Spread -17.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| O/U 56.5 | 17% |
| Commanders O/U 27.5 | 17% |
| Eagles O/U 34.5 | 17% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 16% |
| Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| O/U 57.5 | 15% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 15% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| O/U 58.5 | 14% |
| Commanders O/U 28.5 | 14% |
| Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Spread -20.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 13% |
| O/U 59.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| O/U 60.5 | 11% |
| Commanders O/U 30.5 | 11% |
| Spread -8.5 | 10% |
| Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| O/U 62.5 | 9% |
| O/U 61.5 | 8% |
| Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| O/U 63.5 | 7% |
| O/U 65.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| O/U 64.5 | 7% |
| Commanders O/U 34.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| O/U 67.5 | 5% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -16.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 95% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Commanders vs. Eagles. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 13 at 4:25PM ET: If Commanders wins, the market will resolve to "Commanders". If Eagles wins, the market will resolve to "Eagles". If the game is post…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $95K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Commanders vs. Eagles auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Klarna Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Klarna Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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