Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Klarna Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 23.5 | 93% |
| Steelers O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| O/U 26.5 | 90% |
| O/U 25.5 | 89% |
| O/U 24.5 | 89% |
| O/U 27.5 | 87% |
| O/U 28.5 | 87% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| O/U 29.5 | 85% |
| O/U 21.5 | 84% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 81% |
| O/U 30.5 | 80% |
| O/U 31.5 | 79% |
| O/U 32.5 | 78% |
| Falcons O/U 10.5 | 77% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| Steelers O/U 17.5 | 75% |
| O/U 33.5 | 74% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 11.5 | 71% |
| 2H O/U 14.5 | 70% |
| Spread -1.5 | 69% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 69% |
| O/U 34.5 | 69% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 68% |
| O/U 35.5 | 67% |
| Spread -2.5 | 66% |
| Steelers O/U 16.5 | 66% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| O/U 36.5 | 63% |
| O/U 37.5 | 61% |
| Falcons O/U 13.5 | 61% |
| Steelers O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 61% |
| Steelers O/U 20.5 | 61% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 59% |
| O/U 38.5 | 58% |
| Spread -3.5 | 57% |
| 2H O/U 17.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 57% |
| O/U 39.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| Spread -4.5 | 55% |
| Falcons O/U 16.5 | 55% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 53% |
| Falcons Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 53% |
| O/U 40.5 | 52% |
| Steelers O/U 22.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 52% |
| Spread -5.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| Falcons O/U 26.5 | 52% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| 2H Moneyline | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 1-6 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 21+ | 51% |
| Safety? | 51% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 51% |
| Steelers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 51% |
| Falcons vs. Steelers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Steelers O/U 30.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Steelers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Falcons Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 8.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 49% |
| Falcons O/U 23.5 | 49% |
| Falcons O/U 30.5 | 49% |
| Steelers O/U 26.5 | 49% |
| Steelers O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| Steelers O/U 29.5 | 49% |
| O/U 41.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 19-24 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 13-18 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 48% |
| Falcons O/U 27.5 | 48% |
| Steelers O/U 23.5 | 48% |
| Spread -6.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 25+ | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 7-12 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 47% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 46% |
| O/U 42.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Steelers O/U 25.5 | 44% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 44% |
| O/U 43.5 | 43% |
| Falcons O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 43% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 43% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 42% |
| Falcons Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 41% |
| Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| O/U 44.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 39% |
| Falcons O/U 22.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| Spread -8.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 38% |
| Spread -9.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 37% |
| Falcons O/U 20.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 36% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| 1H Moneyline | 35% |
| O/U 45.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Falcons O/U 25.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 34% |
| O/U 46.5 | 34% |
| Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| O/U 47.5 | 31% |
| O/U 48.5 | 31% |
| Falcons vs. Steelers | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| O/U 49.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 29% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 29% |
| Steelers O/U 28.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -13.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 27% |
| Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 16.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 25% |
| Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 25% |
| Spread -14.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 1-6 | 22% |
| Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| O/U 50.5 | 22% |
| O/U 51.5 | 21% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 21% |
| Spread -16.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Spread -4.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| O/U 52.5 | 19% |
| O/U 53.5 | 18% |
| Spread -5.5 | 18% |
| Spread -17.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Spread -20.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| O/U 54.5 | 16% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 13.5 | 16% |
| O/U 55.5 | 15% |
| Spread -17.5 | 15% |
| Spread -21.5 | 15% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| Spread -20.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 20.5 | 14% |
| O/U 57.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| O/U 56.5 | 13% |
| Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| O/U 58.5 | 12% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| Spread -8.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| O/U 61.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| O/U 60.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 16.5 | 10% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 20.5 | 10% |
| O/U 59.5 | 9% |
| Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Falcons O/U 28.5 | 9% |
| Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| O/U 64.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| O/U 62.5 | 6% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Falcons vs. Steelers" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 93% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 13 at 1:00PM ET: If Falcons wins, the market will resolve to "Falcons". If Steelers wins, the market will resolve to "Steelers". If the game is postpo…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $131K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Klarna Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Klarna Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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