Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Klarna Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 88% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots | 82% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 74% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ shots | 71% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 63% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 56% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 55% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ezri Konsa: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Kristoffer Ajer: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Sander Berge: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Torbjørn Heggem: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Marcus Pedersen: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 48% |
| Patrick Berg: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots | 47% |
| Patrick Berg: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 46% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 3+ shots | 46% |
| Marc Guéhi: 2+ shots | 46% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ shots | 43% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 40% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 39% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 39% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Marcus Pedersen: 2+ shots | 35% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 34% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 4+ saves | 33% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 32% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 31% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 31% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Patrick Berg: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Erling Haaland: 5+ shots | 30% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 30% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 30% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 27% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Sander Berge: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 25% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Patrick Berg: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Patrick Berg: 1+ shots on target | 24% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots on target | 23% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots on target | 23% |
| David Møller Wolfe: 1+ shots | 22% |
| Kristoffer Ajer: 1+ shots | 22% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 22% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots on target | 22% |
| Marcus Pedersen: 1+ shots | 21% |
| Torbjørn Heggem: 1+ shots | 21% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 20% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 19% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 18% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 15% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| David Møller Wolfe: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Kristoffer Ajer: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Sander Berge: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Torbjørn Heggem: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 12% |
| David Møller Wolfe: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots | 9% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Kristian Thorstvedt: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Kristian Thorstvedt: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ assists | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: norway vs. england - player props 94%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Norway and England, scheduled for July 11 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Norway vs. England - Player Props" auf Klarna Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →