Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Klarna Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
88% | 12% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Zum Live-Markt → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
88% | 12% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Zum Live-Markt → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Zum Live-Markt → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Zum Live-Markt → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Zum Live-Markt → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots | 88% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 80% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots | 66% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 63% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 55% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots | 54% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nicolás González: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nicolás González: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 48% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Yeremi Pino: 3+ goals | 48% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ assists | 47% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals | 47% |
| Mikel Merino: 3+ goals | 47% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 46% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 46% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 44% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 44% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 44% |
| Yeremi Pino: 2+ goals | 43% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| David Raya: 2+ saves | 40% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 37% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots | 37% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 36% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 35% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 34% |
| David Raya: 3+ saves | 32% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 32% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 31% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 29% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 29% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 28% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 27% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 27% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Gavi Paez: 2+ goals | 24% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 24% |
| David Raya: 4+ saves | 23% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 23% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 23% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 22% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots | 22% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 22% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 22% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals | 20% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| David Raya: 5+ saves | 18% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 17% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 15% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 10% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Lionel Messi: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Gavi Paez: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots | 8% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 2+ shots | 8% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 2+ shots | 8% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Yeremi Pino: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 2% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 88% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Spain vs. Argentina - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Argentina, scheduled for July 19 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Klarna Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Klarna Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Spain vs. Argentina - Player Props" auf Klarna Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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